June jobs report expected to show hiring slowed while unemployment rate ticked higher

Key Points

• Research suggests hiring is expected to slow, with nonfarm payrolls forecasted to increase by approximately 100,000 to 115,000 in June 2025, down from 139,000 in May.
• It seems likely that the unemployment rate will tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2% in June 2025, based on economists’ forecasts.
• These expectations are based on preliminary data and surveys, with some variation in predicted payroll growth, reflecting the complexity of economic forecasting.

Expected Hiring Trends

Economists anticipate a slowdown in hiring for June 2025, with nonfarm payrolls expected to grow by 100,000 to 115,000, compared to 139,000 in May. This indicates a cautious approach by businesses, potentially influenced by economic uncertainty.

Unemployment Rate Forecast

The unemployment rate, which was 4.2% in May 2025, is forecasted to rise to 4.3% in June, suggesting a slight softening in labour market conditions.

Supporting Sources

These forecasts are supported by recent analyses from reputable sources, including:

• CNBC: ADP report June 2025
• Morningstar: June Jobs Report Expected to Show Weakening Growth
• RSM US: Market Minute: U.S. June jobs report preview

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of June 2025 US Jobs Report Expectations

This section provides a comprehensive examination of the expectations for the June 2025 US jobs report, focusing on hiring trends and unemployment rate forecasts. The analysis is grounded in recent economic data, analyst predictions, and preliminary reports, ensuring a thorough understanding of the anticipated labour market conditions as of July 3, 2025.

Background and Context

The US jobs report, officially released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment rates, and wage growth. For June 2025, the report is scheduled for release on Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EDT (5:30 a.m. PDT), as confirmed by the BLS and various financial news outlets. Given the current date of 01:56 AM PDT on July 3, 2025, the official data has not yet been published, necessitating reliance on forecasts and preliminary indicators.

Recent economic trends, including moderating job growth and signs of labour market cooling, have shaped expectations. The May 2025 jobs report, released on June 6, 2025, indicated nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Analysts have noted factors such as economic uncertainty, government layoffs (e.g., the Department of Government Efficiency initiative), and broader policy impacts, which may influence June’s figures.

Expected Hiring Trends: Slowdown in Job Growth

Economists and financial analysts anticipate a slowdown in hiring for June 2025, with nonfarm payrolls expected to grow at a reduced rate compared to May. The following table summarises the forecasts from key sources:

These forecasts, ranging from 100,000 to 115,000, indicate a significant deceleration in job growth. The variation in predictions reflects the inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting, but the consensus leans toward a slowdown. This expectation is further supported by the ADP National Employment Report for June 2025, released on July 2, 2025, which reported a surprising contraction in private sector jobs, with a loss of 33,000 jobs—the first decline since March 2023. This preliminary data, while not directly comparable to the BLS figures (which include government jobs), suggests businesses are becoming more hesitant to hire, potentially due to economic uncertainty and reduced demand.

Additional context from recent reports highlights contributing factors. For instance, Reuters noted on June 26, 2025, that weekly jobless claims fell, but continuing claims reached a cyclical high, indicating a softening labour market. This aligns with the forecast of slower hiring, as businesses may be reluctant to replace departing workers or expand payrolls amid uncertain economic conditions.

Unemployment Rate Forecast: Expected Increase

The unemployment rate, which remained at 4.2% in May 2025, is expected to tick higher to 4.3% in June 2025, according to multiple sources. The following table details the forecasts:

This anticipated increase to 4.3% suggests a slight softening in labour market conditions, potentially driven by reduced hiring and increased job search activity. The consistency across forecasts from CNBC, Morningstar, and RSM US provides confidence in this expectation. Supporting evidence includes recent trends in unemployment benefit rolls, which reached a 3.5-year high in mid-June, as reported by Reuters on June 26, 2025, indicating more individuals are remaining on unemployment rolls, which could contribute to a higher unemployment rate.

Methodological Considerations and Supporting Data

The forecasts are derived from economist surveys (e.g., Dow Jones, FactSet) and proprietary models (e.g., RSM US), which incorporate recent economic indicators such as initial jobless claims, ADP employment data, and historical revisions to prior months’ reports. For instance, the May 2025 jobs report saw downward revisions, with combined March and April figures revised down by 95,000, which may have influenced expectations for June.

The ADP report, while not a direct predictor of BLS figures, provides valuable context. Its unexpected contraction in June 2025 (a loss of 33,000 private sector jobs) contrasts with economists’ expectations of an increase (e.g., 100,000 per Dow Jones), suggesting potential downside risks to the official payroll figures. However, the ADP report does not include unemployment rate data, as that is derived from the BLS household survey, which is part of the official report.

Potential Influences and Uncertainties

Several factors may influence the actual June 2025 jobs report, contributing to the complexity of forecasts:

• Government Layoffs: The Department of Government Efficiency initiative, led by Elon Musk, has been associated with significant layoffs, with 288,628 announced cuts in the first half of 2025, as reported by CNN on July 2, 2025. These layoffs could weigh on total nonfarm payrolls, particularly in the public sector.
• Economic Policy: President Donald Trump’s broad import tariffs and other policies may create uncertainty for businesses, potentially reducing hiring, as noted by Reuters on June 26, 2025.
• Temporary Protected Status (TPS) Revocations: UBS economists, cited by Morningstar on July 1, 2025, estimate that TPS-related layoffs could cut about 5,000 jobs from the June report, adding to the downward pressure on employment figures.

These factors introduce uncertainty, and the actual report may deviate from forecasts. However, the consensus among analysts suggests a clear trend of slowing hiring and a slight increase in unemployment.

Conclusion

Based on the available forecasts and preliminary data, it is expected that the June 2025 US jobs report will show a slowdown in hiring, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by approximately 100,000 to 115,000, compared to 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate ticking higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. These expectations are supported by consistent predictions from CNBC, Morningstar, and RSM US, as well as contextual data from the ADP report and recent economic trends. The analysis reflects the complexity of economic forecasting, acknowledging potential influences such as government layoffs and policy uncertainty, which may shape the final figures.