Trump’s immigration crackdown is hurting sales of America’s most popular beer

Key Points

• Research suggests Trump’s immigration crackdown is hurting sales of Modelo Especial, America’s most popular beer by sales, due to its impact on Hispanic consumers.
• It seems likely that the crackdown is reducing social gatherings and dining out among Hispanic communities, who make up about half of Modelo’s customer base, leading to a sales decline.
• The evidence leans toward a connection, with Constellation Brands reporting a 3.3% drop in beer shipment volumes, citing consumer sentiment and socioeconomic headwinds.

Background

President Donald Trump’s immigration policies in 2025 have included aggressive measures such as workplace raids and mass deportation campaigns, targeting undocumented immigrants and creating uncertainty, particularly among Hispanic communities.

Impact on Beer Sales

Modelo Especial, owned by Constellation Brands and imported from Mexico, is the top-selling beer in the US. The company’s CEO has stated that the immigration crackdown is deterring Hispanic consumers, who are less likely to engage in social activities where beer is consumed, resulting in lower sales.

Supporting Sources

• Yahoo Finance: Trump’s immigration crackdown is hurting sales of America’s most popular beer
• CNN Business: Trump’s immigration crackdown is hitting Modelo and Corona sales, CEO says
• Reuters: Modelo owner Constellation says Trump immigration crackdown hitting Hispanic customers

Detailed Analysis of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Impact on Sales of America’s Most Popular Beer

This section provides a comprehensive examination of the impact of President Donald Trump’s immigration policies on the sales of Modelo Especial, identified as America’s most popular beer by sales volume, as of July 3, 2025. The analysis is grounded in recent news reports, corporate statements, and economic data, ensuring a thorough understanding of the developments and their implications.

Background and Context

The US beer market is a significant economic sector, with annual consumption estimated at 6.3 billion gallons and retail sales exceeding $135 billion in 2023, as per various industry reports. Modelo Especial, a Mexican lager imported and marketed by Constellation Brands, became the top-selling beer in the US in June 2023, surpassing Bud Light, with sales totalling over $4.1 billion in 2024, according to Statista data from June 25, 2025. This position is based on sales volume and dollar sales, making it a critical indicator of market leadership.

President Trump’s immigration policies in 2025 have been characterised by a “shock-and-awe blitz” of executive orders and actions, as outlined in reports from the American Civil Liberties Union and The New York Times. These policies include workplace raids, mass deportation campaigns, and tightened rules for legal immigrants, aiming to reduce net immigration by about a third compared to late 2024, per Oxford Economics analysis from July 2, 2025. The crackdown has particularly affected Hispanic communities, which are a significant consumer base for many products, including beer.

Identification of America’s Most Popular Beer

To determine America’s most popular beer, multiple sources were consulted, focusing on sales data given the context of the query regarding sales impact. The following table summarises key findings from recent reports:

Source	Most Popular Beer (Sales)	Date	Notes
Statista	Modelo Especial	June 25, 2025	Leading brand with over $4.1 billion in sales in 2024, based on retail data
Forbes	Modelo Especial	November 1, 2024	Overtook Bud Light in June 2023, sales gap widening
Times of India	Modelo Especial	October 28, 2024	Top-selling as of October 2024, based on sales data
Liquor Laboratory	Bud Light (2020, outdated)	March 11, 2024	Historical data, not current
YouGov (Popularity, not sales)	Guinness (2023, not sales)	July 18, 2023	Based on consumer ratings, not sales volume

Given the focus on sales, Modelo Especial is confirmed as America’s most popular beer by sales volume as of 2025, with consistent reports from multiple sources supporting this conclusion. Other metrics, such as search interest (e.g., Miller leading in 30 states per Coffeeness, March 8, 2025) or consumer ratings (e.g., Guinness per Food Network, July 18, 2023), are relevant for popularity but not directly tied to sales impact, aligning with the query’s focus.

Details of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

Trump’s immigration policies in 2025, as detailed in various reports, include:

• Aggressive deportation campaigns, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducting workplace raids, as noted in The New York Times on June 7, 2025, affecting industries like garment and construction.
• A shift in focus, pausing raids on farms, hotels, and eateries as of June 13, 2025, per The New York Times, suggests recognition of economic impacts on these sectors.
• Net immigration is falling to an annualised rate of 600,000, down from 900,000 in late 2024, per Oxford Economics, threatening economic growth due to fewer workers.
• Policies targeting Hispanic communities, with about half of undocumented immigrants (estimated 14 million) potentially affected, as per The New York Times on May 21, 2025, creating socioeconomic headwinds.

These policies have created uncertainty and fear, particularly among Hispanic consumers, who are a significant demographic for beer consumption, especially for brands like Modelo Especial.

Impact on Modelo Especial Sales

Constellation Brands, the owner of Modelo Especial and Corona, has directly attributed sales declines to Trump’s immigration crackdown, with the following key points from recent corporate statements and news reports:

• On April 10, 2025, CEO Bill Newlands stated on a conference call that Hispanic consumers, reflecting roughly half of their business, are consuming less beer due to concerns about immigration policies, as reported by CNBC and Reuters. This includes reduced social gatherings and dining out, key occasions for beer consumption.
• Beer shipment volumes fell by 3.3% in the latest quarter, as per Yahoo Finance on July 2, 2025, with Constellation lowering its sales outlook due to these socioeconomic headwinds.
• Earlier, in Q1 2025, sales fell by 1%, as noted by San.com on April 11, 2025, citing the immigration crackdown as the key reason, with Hispanic customers reducing consumption due to fear of deportations.
• The impact is particularly pronounced in top sales states and zip codes with larger Hispanic populations, as mentioned in Reuters on April 10, 2025, highlighting regional effects.

The following table summarises the sales impact based on recent reports:

Metric	Q1 2025	Latest Quarter (Reported July 2, 2025)	Reason Cited
Beer Shipment Volume Change	-1%	-3.3%	Immigration crackdown affecting Hispanic consumers
Consumer Behavior	Reduced social gatherings, less dining out	Deteriorated sentiment, socioeconomic headwinds	Fear of deportation, policy uncertainty
Corporate Statement	CEO Newlands: Key reason is immigration policies	CEO Newlands: Significant impact on Hispanic base	Direct link to Trump’s policies

Methodological Considerations and Supporting Data

The analysis is derived from recent news reports from Yahoo Finance, CNN Business, Reuters, CNBC, San.com, and The New York Times, which provide corporate earnings calls, market data, and policy updates. Sales data from Statista and Forbes were used to confirm Modelo Especial’s position, while immigration impact data came from Oxford Economics and ACLU reports. The forecasts and implications are based on these sources, acknowledging the complexity of consumer behaviour and potential for deviation from expected outcomes.

Potential Influences and Uncertainties

Several factors may influence future sales:

• Policy Adjustments: If Trump shifts focus further, pausing more raids, it could mitigate some impacts, but current trends suggest continued pressure.
• Consumer Sentiment: The Hispanic community’s response to ongoing policies could vary, potentially stabilising or worsening sales depending on economic conditions.
• Market Competition: Other beers, like Bud Light or Michelob Ultra, may gain market share if Hispanic consumers shift preferences, though reports suggest Modelo’s unique position with this demographic.

Comparative Analysis

The following table compares the impact on Modelo Especial with potential effects on other top beers:

Beer Brand	Sales Impact	Reason	Hispanic Consumer Base
Modelo Especial	-3.3% in latest quarter	Immigration crackdown, reduced social occasions	~50% of sales
Bud Light	Stable, but historical decline noted	Less affected, domestic production	Lower Hispanic focus
Michelob Ultra	Rising, per some reports	Less impacted by immigration, health focus	Lower Hispanic focus

Economic and Market Implications

The impact on Modelo Especial highlights the interconnectedness of immigration policy and consumer markets, particularly for imported goods with significant ethnic consumer bases. The sales decline, while notable, is part of broader economic effects, with potential long-term implications for Constellation Brands and the US beer industry, especially given the reliance on Hispanic consumers for growth.

Conclusion

Research suggests that Trump’s immigration crackdown is indeed hurting sales of Modelo Especial, America’s most popular beer by sales, due to its impact on Hispanic consumers, who are reducing social and dining occasions. It seems likely that the crackdown’s socioeconomic headwinds are driving a 3.3% drop in shipment volumes, with Constellation Brands directly attributing the decline to policy-induced consumer sentiment. The evidence leans toward a significant connection, reflecting the complexity of immigration policy impacts on specific market segments.