Stock Market Update: July 15, 2025

As of July 15, 2025, U.S. stock markets closed mixed amid concerns over persistent inflation pressures, which have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The session saw broad-based selling in most sectors, offset by gains in technology stocks, particularly Nvidia. Pre-market futures for the following trading day (July 16) are pointing lower, reflecting waning bets on imminent Fed easing following the latest consumer price index (CPI) data showing an uptick in inflation.

Key Closing Levels on July 15

U.S. stocks ended the day with the following performances:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its worst day in a month, dragged down by inflation-sensitive sectors like industrials and financials.

• The S&P 500 slipped after briefly hitting an intraday record, with about 90% of its components declining.
• The Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, notching a fresh record close, primarily driven by a 4% surge in Nvidia shares after the company expressed optimism about resuming sales of its H20 AI chips to China.
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  Other AI and chip stocks, such as those in the semiconductor space, also provided support.

Inflation Pickup and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The market’s reaction was largely triggered by the June 2025 CPI report, released earlier in the day by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

• Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month (after a 0.1% increase in May) and 2.7% year-over-year (up from 2.4% in May), marking the highest annual rate since February 2025.
• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually, slightly above expectations.
• Key drivers included tariff-related price hikes on imports, with nondurable goods (e.g., apparel) and durable goods seeing notable increases. This is attributed to President Trump’s recently announced 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, set to take effect August 1, 2025, which are already being passed through to consumers.

This hotter-than-expected inflation data has led investors to scale back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. Economists now anticipate the Fed will maintain a patient stance, monitoring upcoming data like the June producer price index (PPI), which is expected to show a 0.2% monthly rise.

 Bond yields rose in response, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing, adding further pressure on equities.

Futures Outlook (Pre-Market for July 16)

As of late July 15 (around 10:54 PM EDT) or early July 16 in other time zones, stock futures are slipping, signaling a potential lower open:

• Dow futures: Down ~105 points (-0.2%)
• S&P 500 futures: Down 0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 futures: Down 0.3%

This downturn reflects ongoing concerns about sustained inflation and reduced odds of near-term Fed easing.

Broader Market Context

• Earnings Season Impact: Second-quarter earnings are underway, with S&P 500 profits projected to rise 5.8% year-over-year (down from earlier forecasts of 10.2%). Investors are watching bank earnings closely.
• Sector Highlights: Asset managers like Apollo Global (+2%) and KKR (+1.7%) gained on reports of potential private market expansions into 401(k)s via a Trump executive order.
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  After-hours movers included Global Payments (+5%) on activist investor news.
• Global Reaction: Asian markets were mixed overnight, with some declines mirroring U.S. futures weakness.

Overall, the market remains sensitive to inflation trends and policy signals, with tech resilience providing a buffer. Investors should monitor the PPI report and Fed speakers for further clues on rate paths.