“Citi Revises Gold Price Forecast to $3,500 Despite Fed Cuts and Slowing Demand – 2025–2030 Outlook & Charts”

Key Points

Research suggests gold prices may decline below $3,000 per ounce soon, potentially dropping to $2,500–$2,700 by mid-2026, per Citi’s analysis.
The evidence leans toward weaker investment demand, global growth improvements, and Federal Reserve rate cuts driving this trend.
There is controversy, as other forecasts predict gold prices could rise to $3,560–$4,053 by 2025’s end, highlighting differing market views.

Citi’s Prediction

Citi predicts gold prices will sink below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a further decline to $2,500–$2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026. This outlook is based on weaker investment demand, improving global economic growth, and expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Reasons for the Prediction

Citi’s analysis points to several factors: reduced investor interest in gold, stronger global growth prospects reducing the need for safe-haven assets, and the Federal Reserve’s anticipated shift to a neutral monetary policy, which could weaken gold’s appeal as interest rates fall.

Current Context

As of June 17, 2025, gold is trading around $3,396 per ounce, above Citi’s predicted decline but within a range where market volatility could align with their forecast.

Other Perspectives

Other forecasts, such as those from J.P. Morgan Research and LiteFinance, suggest gold could reach $3,700–$4,053 by the end of 2025, driven by strong central bank demand and safe-haven buying, contrasting with Citi’s bearish view.

Citi’s Gold Price Forecast

Citi’s latest analysis, as reported by Bloomberg .

The Mining Weekly article from June 17, 2025, corroborates this, stating that Citi expects gold to consolidate above $3,000 next quarter with a 60% probability base case, before heading lower, with spot bullion last at $3,396 .This indicates a potential 11.5% drop from current levels in the coming quarters, followed by a further decline by mid-2026.

Reasons Behind Citi’s Prediction

Citi’s bearish outlook is driven by several factors, as detailed in the Bloomberg and Mining Weekly reports. First, weaker investment demand is cited, with the Mining Weekly article noting abating demand in late 2025 and 2026 due to Trump’s popularity and stronger US economic growth. Second, improving global growth prospects are seen as reducing the need for gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially diminishing its appeal to investors. Third, anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to play a role, with the Mining Weekly article mentioning the Fed moving from a restrictive to a neutral policy, which could weaken gold’s attractiveness as interest rates decline. Additionally, Citi’s earlier caution, as seen in a May 2025 Mining.com article, highlighted potential headwinds such as economic growth and equity risks unwinding as the US midterms approach, and households holding the most gold in half a century.

These factors collectively suggest a market environment where gold’s traditional drivers, such as geopolitical uncertainty and low interest rates, may be less influential, leading to a potential price correction.

Current Market Context and Gold Price Trends

As of June 17, 2025, the current gold price is approximately $3,396 per ounce, based on data from trading platforms like Kitco.

This price reflects a recent high, with gold having risen 45.72% compared to the same time last year, according to Trading Economics. However, Citi’s prediction of a decline below $3,000 suggests a significant correction from current levels, potentially aligning with market volatility observed in recent months.

Historical data from sources like GoldPrice.org

indicate that gold has seen substantial gains in 2025, with record highs near $3,500 in April, driven by safe-haven demand amid US-China trade tensions and central bank buying. This context underscores the potential for Citi’s forecast to materialize if investment demand weakens and global growth improves, as anticipated.

Comparison with Other Forecasts

Citi’s bearish prediction stands in contrast to several other forecasts, highlighting a controversy in the gold market outlook. For instance, J.P. Morgan Research, in a June 2025 report, expects gold prices to average $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025 and climb toward $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank and investor demand .

A Reuters poll from April 30, 2025, also shows a median forecast of $3,065 per ounce for 2025, up from $2,756 three months prior, indicating a generally bullish sentiment among analysts .

These forecasts suggest that while Citi sees a decline, other market participants expect continued strength, driven by factors like central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.

To illustrate the range of predictions, the following table summarizes key forecasts for 2025 and 2026:

Institution/Source	2025 End Price Forecast ($/oz)	2026 Mid-Year Forecast ($/oz)
Citi	Below 3,000 (Q3), then 2,500–2,700 by H2	2,500–2,700
J.P. Morgan Research	3,675 (Q4)	~4,000
LiteFinance	3,560.59–3,925.39	3,904.54–5,155.30
CoinPriceForecast	4,053	4,589 (H2)
Reuters Poll (Median)	3,065	–

This table highlights the divergence, with Citi’s forecast being notably bearish compared to the bullish outlooks from others, reflecting differing views on demand drivers and economic conditions.

Implications and Uncertainties

Citi’s prediction, if realized, could signal a shift in gold market dynamics, potentially impacting investors, central banks, and gold-related industries. The anticipated decline could be influenced by factors such as reduced safe-haven demand if global growth improves, as noted in the Mining Weekly article, and the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts, which could alter the interest rate environment. However, uncertainties remain, including geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and the pace of central bank buying, which could support higher prices, as suggested by J.P. Morgan and others.

The controversy between Citi’s bearish outlook and the more bullish forecasts underscores the complexity of gold price predictions, with market participants weighing various indicators like inflation (CPI and M2), currency values, and investor sentiment. For instance, InvestingHaven’s March 2025 report predicts a soft uptrend in 2025–2026, correlating gold prices with inflation expectations .

contrasting with Citi’s view.

Detailed Data and Projections

To provide further context, below is a table summarizing Citi’s recent forecast adjustments and key data points:

Date	Forecast Adjustment	Reason Cited
Feb 2025	3-month target to $3,000, 2025 avg $2,900	Trade wars, geopolitical risks, central bank demand
Apr 2025	3-month target to $3,500	Chinese insurer buying, tariff risks
Jun 2025	Below $3,000 soon, $2,500–2,700 by H2 2026	Weaker demand, global growth, Fed rate cuts

This table, derived from Reuters and Bloomberg articles, illustrates Citi’s shifting stance, reflecting responsiveness to market conditions.

In conclusion, Citi’s latest forecast of a gold price decline below $3,000 in the coming quarters, with a further drop by mid-2026, is based on weaker investment demand, improving global growth, and Fed rate cuts. This view contrasts with other bullish predictions, highlighting a debated outlook for gold in 2025 and beyond, necessitating ongoing monitoring of market trends and economic indicators.