Nvidia earnings to reveal hit from US export curbs on China

Earnings Report Overview

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to disclose its fiscal first-quarter earnings report after the market closes on May 28, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 5:00 p.m. ET. As Kiplinger reported, analyst expectations include earnings of 73 cents per share, up 19.7% year over year (YoY), and revenue of $43.2 billion, a 66.2% improvement over the year-ago period. This report is anticipated to be one of the most pivotal earnings calls of the year, given Nvidia’s leadership in the AI chip race and its potential to influence the broader tech rally.

US Export Curbs on China and Financial Impact

The US has imposed significant export restrictions on AI chips to China, particularly affecting Nvidia’s H20 graphics processing units (GPUs). On April 9, 2025, the US government informed Nvidia that it would require a federal export license to sell these chips to China and a handful of other countries, leading to a substantial financial hit. On April 15, 2025, Nvidia announced that it would record a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal first quarter, tied to inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves for H20 chips it cannot sell due to these restrictions. This charge is expected to be reflected in the May 28 earnings report, representing a direct hit from the export curbs.

Analysts have estimated further impacts. Morgan Stanley analysts, as reported on April 16, 2025, trimmed their revenue projections for Nvidia, citing that the new curbs are “more disruptive” than anticipated, expecting an 8% to 9% hit to Nvidia’s data center revenues over the next couple of quarters. Additionally, Kiplinger’s live updates mention an expected $15 billion in lost revenue due to these restrictions, underscoring the scale of the challenge.

Strategic Responses and Adaptations

Nvidia is actively adapting to these restrictions. On May 2, 2025, reports indicated that Nvidia is tweaking the design of its AI chips to comply with US export rules, discussing with major Chinese customers like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent. These moves suggest a long-term strategy to maintain presence in China, potentially mitigating future impacts.

Market and Policy Context

As noted in various reports, the export curbs are part of a broader US-China trade tension, with the Trump administration tightening restrictions.

Analyst Expectations and Forward Guidance

Analysts remain confident in Nvidia’s leadership in AI infrastructure despite the challenges. CFRA Research, as noted in Kiplinger’s updates, sees an improved outlook due to favorable policy shifts. Stifel analyst Ruben Roy does not expect Nvidia’s dominance to fade. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri expects growth reacceleration in the second half of 2025, with potential resumed shipments to China using modified Blackwell-based SKUs. These expectations suggest that while the export curbs pose a significant hit, Nvidia’s broader business remains strong, particularly with demand for its Blackwell platform and other products.