Senate Republicans Unveil Major Changes to Trump Tax-Cut Bill: Impact on Energy, Healthcare, and Solar Stocks

Key Points

Research suggests the Senate’s Trump megabill, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” impacts businesses through tax cuts, energy policy shifts, and healthcare changes, with some controversy over costs and coverage.
It seems likely that businesses benefit from permanent tax deductions for R&D and investments, but clean energy firms may face challenges from subsidy cuts.
The evidence leans toward healthcare cuts increasing business costs for insurance, while rural hospitals might see support, with ongoing debates about workforce impacts.

Taxes

The bill extends and makes permanent certain business tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including full expensing for domestic R&D and new capital investments in machinery and equipment. This is likely to encourage business growth by allowing immediate deductions, reducing tax liabilities for sectors like manufacturing and technology. Additionally, deductions for tipped income (up to $25,000 for individuals) and overtime pay ($25,000 for joint filers) could lower costs for service industry businesses.

Energy

The bill rolls back clean energy tax credits, such as those for clean vehicles and electricity, and repeals subsidies for wind and solar (except for existing projects), potentially harming clean energy businesses like Tesla. Conversely, it introduces a tax incentive for coal production, which may benefit traditional energy companies. This shift could indirectly favor oil and gas by reducing clean energy competitiveness, though impacts vary by sector.

Healthcare

Medicaid cuts, including work requirements and restrictions on provider fees, may lead to millions losing coverage, potentially increasing business healthcare costs, especially for low-wage employers. Cuts to Medicare and the Affordable Care Act aim to save costs by targeting waste, but could affect healthcare providers and insurers. However, the bill supports rural hospitals with targeted funds, which may benefit healthcare businesses in those areas, amidst debates over workforce and access.

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of the Senate’s Trump Megabill Impacts on the Business World

This note provides a comprehensive analysis of how the Senate’s Trump megabill, officially termed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” impacts the business world in the areas of taxes, energy, and healthcare, as of July 1, 2025. The analysis is based on recent reports from financial news outlets, government statements, and policy analyses, ensuring a thorough understanding of the implications for businesses.

Background and Context

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is a comprehensive legislative package advanced by Senate leaders, passing a 50-50 vote on July 1, 2025, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie in favor of President Trump. The bill, nearly 900 pages long, addresses multiple policy areas, including taxes, energy, and healthcare, and has faced contention, particularly over healthcare provisions that could lead to significant coverage losses. This analysis focuses on its business implications, given its potential to reshape economic landscapes.

Impact on Taxes

The tax provisions of the bill are designed to extend and enhance benefits for businesses, building on the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Key changes include:

Permanent Business Tax Breaks: The Senate version makes certain business tax deductions permanent, notably full expensing for domestic research and development (R&D) and new capital investments in machinery and equipment. Previously temporary under the House version, this permanence provides long-term certainty for businesses, particularly in technology, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors. Full expensing allows companies to deduct the entire cost of these investments in the year they are made, rather than depreciating over time, which can significantly reduce tax liabilities and encourage investment.
- Source: Senate Republicans unveil proposed changes to Trump tax-cut bill
Deductions for Tipped Income and Overtime Pay: The bill introduces a deduction for tipped income, allowing individuals to deduct up to $25,000, phasing out above $150,000 for individuals and $300,000 for married couples, compared to the House’s higher $160,000 limit. Additionally, a $25,000 deduction for overtime pay is proposed for joint filers. These changes are particularly beneficial for businesses in the service industry, such as restaurants and hospitality, where tipped and overtime workers are common, potentially reducing operational costs by lowering tax burdens.
- Source: Senate Republicans unveil proposed changes to Trump tax-cut bill
Economic Cost and Controversy: While these tax cuts are favorable, the bill’s overall economic cost, projected to exceed $4 trillion over a decade, has raised concerns about increasing the federal deficit by $3.3 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. This could indirectly affect businesses through higher borrowing costs or economic instability, with critics, including Elon Musk via an X post , calling the debt increase a “mockery.” The Business Roundtable has urged passage, emphasizing the importance of protecting 2017 tax reform benefits, highlighting corporate America’s support.
- Source: Taxes, energy, and healthcare: 3 ways Senate’s Trump megabill impacts the business world

The tax provisions are generally positive for businesses, providing incentives for investment and reducing costs, though the fiscal implications remain a point of contention.

Impact on Energy

The energy provisions of the bill reflect a shift toward traditional energy sources, with significant implications for businesses in the energy sector:

Rollback of Clean Energy Tax Credits: The bill rolls back tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act, including those for clean vehicles and electricity, and repeals federal subsidies for wind and solar industries, unless projects were placed in service before the end of 2027. This is a major setback for clean energy businesses, such as Tesla and solar companies, which have relied on these incentives for growth. The removal of a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, for instance, could reduce demand for electric vehicles, impacting manufacturers and related supply chains.
- Source: What’s in the Senate’s version of Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’?
Tax Incentive for Coal Production: The bill introduces a tax incentive for coal production, aligning with a policy shift toward fossil fuels. This benefits coal companies, potentially increasing their profitability and competitiveness. The move is part of a broader rollback of clean energy funding, with savings projected at $488 billion over 10 years, according to analyses.
- Source: What’s in the Senate’s version of Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’?
Indirect Effects on Energy Markets: While the bill does not explicitly address oil and gas, the reduction in clean energy incentives could indirectly benefit these sectors by making clean energy less competitive. However, the overall impact on energy markets depends on global trends and regulatory environments, with clean energy stocks already reacting negatively to the proposed changes.
- Source: Senate committee’s changes to tax bill slam US solar stocks

This energy policy shift favors traditional energy businesses while posing challenges for clean energy firms, with potential long-term implications for innovation and sustainability in the sector.

Impact on Healthcare

The healthcare provisions of the bill, particularly cuts to Medicaid and related programs, have complex implications for businesses, affecting costs, workforce health, and industry dynamics:

Medicaid Cuts and Workforce Impacts: The bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, with work requirements of 80 hours per month for able-bodied adults under 65 (with exceptions for parents of children under 14) and restrictions on state-levied fees for healthcare providers, affecting 41 states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. These changes could lead to approximately 4.8 million Medicaid recipients losing coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office, potentially increasing pressure on businesses to provide more comprehensive health insurance. This is particularly relevant for low-wage employers, where employees may lose access to healthcare, potentially affecting workforce health and productivity. The savings are projected at $930 billion over 10 years.
- Source: What’s in the Senate’s version of Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’?
Impact on Healthcare Providers and Insurers: The bill also targets “waste, fraud, and abuse” in Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, aiming to save an additional $170 billion over 10 years. While this could reduce government spending, it may affect healthcare providers (e.g., hospitals, clinics) and insurance companies through reduced reimbursements or changes in operational models. Rural hospitals, which account for 7% of Medicaid spending, are a focus, with the bill expanding protection and providing targeted funds, potentially benefiting healthcare businesses in rural areas by ensuring better access to resources.
- Source: Myth vs. Fact: The One Big Beautiful Bill
Defunding Planned Parenthood and Other Measures: The bill cuts Medicaid funding for entities providing abortions (except in cases of rape or incest), with a cost of $52 million over 10 years, which could affect women’s health services and indirectly impact businesses relying on a healthy workforce. The administration claims these measures strengthen Medicaid by focusing resources on vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women, children, and people with disabilities, but critics argue they could lead to coverage losses and higher costs for businesses.
- Source: What’s in the Senate’s version of Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’?

The healthcare provisions present a mixed bag for businesses, with potential cost increases due to coverage losses, but targeted support for rural healthcare could mitigate some impacts, amidst ongoing debates about workforce and access.

Summary Table of Key Impacts

Area	Positive Impacts for Businesses	Negative Impacts for Businesses
Taxes	Permanent deductions for R&D and capital investments, lower service industry costs through tipped and overtime deductions.	Potential indirect costs from increased federal deficit and borrowing rates.
Energy	Tax incentives for coal production benefit traditional energy companies.	Loss of clean energy tax credits harms renewable energy businesses, potentially reducing competitiveness.
Healthcare	Targeted funds for rural hospitals benefit healthcare businesses in those areas.	Medicaid cuts may increase insurance costs for employers, especially low-wage, and affect workforce health.

This table summarizes the dual nature of the bill’s impacts, highlighting both opportunities and challenges for businesses across sectors.

Conclusion

The Senate’s Trump megabill, as of July 1, 2025, offers significant tax benefits for businesses through permanent deductions and incentives, while shifting energy policy toward traditional sources at the expense of clean energy firms. Healthcare provisions, particularly Medicaid cuts, could increase costs for businesses, especially in providing insurance, though support for rural hospitals offers some mitigation. These changes reflect a complex landscape, with ongoing debates over fiscal costs and social impacts, necessitating careful consideration by business leaders.